akashic
1876–2024
Raleigh-Durham (Fayetvlle)·North Carolina

Raleigh-Durham (Fayetvlle) delivered D+15 in 2024.

Research Triangle anchors a market split between college corridors and military bases

1876 — 2024·38 elections
NC
Latest
D+15
in 2024
Archetype
Bellwether
since the recent cycles
Population
3,393,797
2024 ACS

Raleigh-Durham (Fayetvlle), North Carolina: Bellwether market. In 2024, voted D+15%. Democratic peak: D+66 in 1936.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
D+15MIT Election Lab
Political archetype
BellwetherAkashic typology
Population
3,393,7972024 5-year
Median household income
$83,2802024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
55.0%2024 5-year
Black
24.8%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
12.5%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+66 in 1936MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+37 in 1972MIT Election Lab
2024 results by constituent county
22 counties · 11 D · 11 R
R+60
D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
D
+14.7%
1,008,847747,0141,785,331
D
+16.6%
999,009711,2211,737,862
D
+14.6%
823,932605,8051,492,003
D
+12.1%
786,771614,9131,418,884
D
+13.6%
754,615572,7571,338,366
R
−0.8%
524,659533,3171,062,222
D
+1.9%
424,965408,723839,600
D
+3.2%
356,554333,328733,025
D
+6.3%
337,302291,733723,597
R
−7.4%
261,156302,977566,527
R
−14.7%
244,999330,002576,309
D
+4.4%
232,953212,392466,301
D
+11.9%
226,515177,917406,834
R
−36.7%
119,062260,561385,173
O
+0.8%
122,879119,810382,972
D
+19.2%
188,170127,564315,734
D
+24.9%
175,013105,245280,323
D
+26.4%
152,47088,586241,988
D
+31.1%
165,75887,158252,954
D
+51.1%
121,66035,095169,376
D
+53.7%
125,45637,773163,229
D
+64.4%
138,54730,005168,555
D
+66.4%
143,64628,988172,636
D
+60.1%
116,00828,419145,852
D
+6.2%
71,76963,419135,188
D
+33.5%
62,99631,00395,524
D
+25.8%
71,77342,321114,101
D
+28.3%
42,04423,49565,643
D
+54.8%
36,0755,22756,332
D
+15.9%
34,32924,90559,308
D
+34.0%
31,90415,65647,828
D
+12.3%
45,79135,69981,979
D
+9.3%
50,05641,46691,894
D
+13.7%
34,94024,01979,528
—
No data
———
—
No data
———
—
No data
———
—
No data
———

Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
English
12.1%
German
8.5%
Irish
8.0%
American
6.8%
Italian
3.6%
Scottish
2.2%
Polish
1.3%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 37.8 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.5%
85+
1.0%
2.0%
75–84
2.6%
4.3%
65–74
5.1%
5.8%
55–64
6.3%
6.2%
45–54
6.4%
6.7%
35–44
6.9%
7.1%
25–34
7.2%
4.8%
18–24
4.6%
8.6%
5–17
8.2%
3.0%
<5
2.9%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$83,280
Raleigh-Durham (Fayetvlle) ranks near the middle of US counties.
Raleigh-Durham (Fayetvlle)$83,280
North Carolina$72,388
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
12.3%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1816.4%
Working age (18–64)11.0%
Seniors (65+)11.4%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
84.3%
speak English only
Spanish9.5%
Other Indo-European2.6%
Asian & Pacific Islander2.5%
Other languages1.1%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Other Christian
13.5%
Baptist
12.3%
Catholic & Orthodox
9.1%
Methodist
6.1%
Mainline Protestant
2.9%
Non-Christian
2.7%
Pentecostal & Holiness
2.3%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 51.0% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Home to Fort Liberty and three major research universities, this market blends a highly educated urban core with one of the country's largest active-duty military populations, producing consistently competitive margins in federal and statewide races.

The Democratic margin in Raleigh-Durham (Fayetvlle) has rarely exceeded sixty-six points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded thirty-seven points. 2024 delivered the market to the Democratic candidate by fifteen points.

Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most markets. A 55% non-Hispanic-white share, a 12% poverty rate, and a median household income of $83,280 — all within the broad national range.

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Raleigh-Durham (Fayetvlle), North Carolina — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/dma/560/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Raleigh-Durham (Fayetvlle), North Carolina vote in 2024?
In 2024, Raleigh-Durham (Fayetvlle), North Carolina voted Democratic by 14.7 points (D+15), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 1,785,331 votes cast, 1,008,847 went Democratic and 747,014 went Republican.
What is Raleigh-Durham (Fayetvlle), North Carolina's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Raleigh-Durham (Fayetvlle), North Carolina as a "Bellwether" market based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the market has voted Democratic 29 times, Republican 4 times, and other 1 times.
When did Raleigh-Durham (Fayetvlle), North Carolina last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Raleigh-Durham (Fayetvlle), North Carolina voted Republican was 2004.
How many people live in Raleigh-Durham (Fayetvlle), North Carolina?
Raleigh-Durham (Fayetvlle), North Carolina has a population of 3,393,797 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Raleigh-Durham (Fayetvlle), North Carolina?
Median household income in Raleigh-Durham (Fayetvlle), North Carolina is $83,280 — above the national median of $80,734. The North Carolina state median is $72,388.
What is the political history of Raleigh-Durham (Fayetvlle), North Carolina?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Raleigh-Durham (Fayetvlle), North Carolina from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 29 went Democratic and 4 went Republican. The market's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.