Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota: Bellwether market. In 2024, voted D+5%. Republican peak: R+56 in 1904.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+5MIT Election Lab
- Political archetype
- BellwetherAkashic typology
- Population
- 4,908,2642024 5-year
- Median household income
- $93,9292024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 76.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 7.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 6.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+27 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+56 in 1904MIT Election Lab
Constituent county margins for Minneapolis-St. Paul, MNOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
R+60D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 1,446,825 | 1,293,482 | 2,808,701 | ||
| D | 1,496,733 | 1,257,681 | 2,819,578 | ||
| D | 1,188,079 | 1,115,231 | 2,516,876 | ||
| D | 1,310,803 | 1,135,323 | 2,503,814 | ||
| D | 1,326,697 | 1,091,200 | 2,468,131 | ||
| D | 1,216,541 | 1,142,431 | 2,388,742 | ||
| D | 976,985 | 926,258 | 2,038,087 | ||
| D | 925,219 | 625,371 | 1,803,865 | ||
| D | 840,506 | 608,754 | 1,931,056 | ||
| D | 903,467 | 784,830 | 1,705,622 | ||
| R | 823,616 | 834,801 | 1,669,868 | ||
| D | 759,651 | 682,244 | 1,626,424 | ||
| D | 839,878 | 638,903 | 1,526,354 | ||
| R | 620,242 | 693,123 | 1,347,275 | ||
| D | 647,184 | 506,877 | 1,211,451 | ||
| D | 739,954 | 429,334 | 1,172,104 | ||
| D | 574,433 | 571,074 | 1,148,376 | ||
| R | 446,386 | 544,254 | 992,716 | ||
| R | 444,472 | 571,064 | 1,020,562 | ||
| D | 495,976 | 362,402 | 881,710 | ||
| D | 417,952 | 400,709 | 824,858 | ||
| R | 445,096 | 451,033 | 904,051 | ||
| D | 483,839 | 261,093 | 818,977 | ||
| D | 445,298 | 264,360 | 731,337 | ||
| R | 298,501 | 413,278 | 719,297 | ||
| R | 42,307 | 296,494 | 594,928 | ||
| R | 100,069 | 375,136 | 528,878 | ||
| D | 133,431 | 131,785 | 284,030 | ||
| O | 78,375 | 50,641 | 239,408 | ||
| R | 80,535 | 144,900 | 241,482 | ||
| R | 41,521 | 164,087 | 220,455 | ||
| R | 80,915 | 144,467 | 234,272 | ||
| R | 98,345 | 146,417 | 251,281 | ||
| D | 89,607 | 82,988 | 202,213 | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
| — | — | — | — |
Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
29.3%
Irish
10.3%
English
6.7%
Polish
3.9%
American
3.2%
French
2.7%
Italian
2.3%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 38.9 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$93,929
Minneapolis-St. Paul ranks near the middle of US counties.
Minneapolis-St. Paul$93,929
Minnesota$89,062
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
8.9%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 1810.1%
Working age (18–64)8.3%
Seniors (65+)10.2%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
86.9%
speak English only
Spanish4.3%
Asian & Pacific Islander3.7%
Other languages3.1%
Other Indo-European1.9%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 51.5% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
The Minneapolis–St. Paul designated market area spans the metro's mix of high-density urban precincts and fast-growing exurban counties, producing notable ticket-splitting patterns in statewide races that routinely tip on single-digit margins.
The Democratic margin in Minneapolis-St. Paul has rarely exceeded twenty-seven points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded fifty-six points. 2024 delivered the market to the Democratic candidate by five points.
Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most markets. A 76% non-Hispanic-white share, a 9% poverty rate, and a median household income of $93,929 — all within the broad national range.
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/dma/613/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota vote in 2024?
In 2024, Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota voted Democratic by 5.5 points (D+5), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 2,808,701 votes cast, 1,446,825 went Democratic and 1,293,482 went Republican.
What is Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota as a "Bellwether" market based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the market has voted Democratic 21 times, Republican 12 times, and other 1 times.
When did Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota voted Republican was 1984.
How many people live in Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota?
Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota has a population of 4,908,264 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota?
Median household income in Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota is $93,929 — above the national median of $80,734. The Minnesota state median is $89,062.
What is the political history of Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 21 went Democratic and 12 went Republican. The market's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.