akashic
1876–2024
Phoenix (Prescott)·Arizona

Phoenix (Prescott) delivered R+9 in 2024.

High-desert retiree belt anchored by a fast-growing Prescott metro

1876 — 2024·38 elections
AZ
Latest
R+9
in 2024
Archetype
Bellwether
since the recent cycles
Population
5,866,774
2024 ACS

Phoenix (Prescott), Arizona: Bellwether market. In 2024, voted R+9%. Democratic peak: D+43 in 1936.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
R+9MIT Election Lab
Political archetype
BellwetherAkashic typology
Population
5,866,7742024 5-year
Median household income
$84,9832024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
60.3%2024 5-year
Black
5.0%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
29.0%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+43 in 1936MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+41 in 1984MIT Election Lab
2024 results by constituent county
10 counties · 1 D · 9 R
R+60
D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
R
−9.1%
1,211,1541,458,3982,706,654
R
−3.3%
1,274,7891,364,2012,689,628
R
−7.6%
865,6781,019,5792,035,898
R
−13.0%
760,743993,5411,792,284
R
−12.1%
766,878981,0331,770,047
R
−14.8%
644,283871,3931,529,599
R
−10.4%
493,980613,8941,156,231
R
−1.1%
471,621483,5571,053,408
R
−6.0%
376,683443,5841,117,989
R
−27.7%
307,229546,907865,636
R
−40.6%
216,400517,840742,028
R
−37.9%
163,377401,224627,363
R
−22.1%
198,261316,374534,830
R
−39.3%
126,528302,825448,161
R
−23.9%
115,136198,973350,095
R
−4.5%
162,734178,036341,033
R
−15.0%
117,222158,555275,971
R
−23.2%
76,128122,138198,500
R
−17.0%
74,649105,190179,839
D
+9.7%
63,97452,423119,132
D
+17.2%
54,98438,78094,099
D
+26.4%
64,84137,641103,082
D
+42.8%
59,51222,90685,618
D
+36.8%
54,06524,56780,184
R
−16.2%
25,95736,03862,089
R
−5.4%
18,07320,76649,759
R
−11.0%
20,16025,14845,308
D
+24.3%
22,28013,00138,205
D
+31.0%
6,8762,06315,508
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Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
12.9%
English
10.3%
Irish
9.2%
Italian
4.3%
American
4.2%
Polish
1.9%
French
1.8%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 39.2 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.8%
85+
1.1%
2.8%
75–84
3.1%
4.9%
65–74
5.6%
5.9%
55–64
6.2%
5.9%
45–54
6.0%
6.6%
35–44
6.3%
7.2%
25–34
6.8%
4.7%
18–24
4.4%
8.4%
5–17
8.0%
2.8%
<5
2.7%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$84,983
Phoenix (Prescott) ranks near the middle of US counties.
Phoenix (Prescott)$84,983
Arizona$79,964
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
11.7%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1815.3%
Working age (18–64)10.8%
Seniors (65+)10.8%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
76.0%
speak English only
Spanish17.4%
Asian & Pacific Islander2.3%
Other languages2.1%
Other Indo-European2.1%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
21.6%
Other Christian
15.1%
Non-Christian
2.8%
Pentecostal & Holiness
1.7%
Mainline Protestant
1.6%
Baptist
1.5%
Methodist
0.6%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 55.0% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

The Prescott-centered market draws heavily from retirement in-migration across Yavapai County, producing an older, predominantly white electorate that has consistently delivered lopsided margins in statewide contests.

The Democratic margin in Phoenix (Prescott) has rarely exceeded forty-three points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded forty-one points. 2024 delivered the market to the Republican candidate by nine points.

Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most markets. A 60% non-Hispanic-white share, a 12% poverty rate, and a median household income of $84,983 — all within the broad national range.

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Phoenix (Prescott), Arizona — The Long Memory. Akashic Intelligence — The Long Memory. https://tiers.akashic.app/dma/753/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Phoenix (Prescott), Arizona vote in 2024?
In 2024, Phoenix (Prescott), Arizona voted Republican by 9.1 points (R+9), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 2,706,654 votes cast, 1,211,154 went Democratic and 1,458,398 went Republican.
What is Phoenix (Prescott), Arizona's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Phoenix (Prescott), Arizona as a "Bellwether" market based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the market has voted Democratic 7 times, Republican 22 times, and other 0 times.
When did Phoenix (Prescott), Arizona last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Phoenix (Prescott), Arizona voted Democratic was 1948.
How many people live in Phoenix (Prescott), Arizona?
Phoenix (Prescott), Arizona has a population of 5,866,774 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Phoenix (Prescott), Arizona?
Median household income in Phoenix (Prescott), Arizona is $84,983 — above the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Phoenix (Prescott), Arizona?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Phoenix (Prescott), Arizona from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 7 went Democratic and 22 went Republican. The market's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.